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Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Pelicans NBA game on February 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
123
111
Feb 12, 1AM Smoothie King Center
Feb 12, 1AM Smoothie King Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 31 | 27 | 38 | 27 | 123 |
Pelicans | 25 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 31 | 27 | 38 | 27 | 123 |
Pelicans | 25 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 111 |
Q4 00:45 Jeremiah Fears misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:12 Zion Williamson misses two point driving floating jump shot
Q4 2:14 Jeremiah Fears misses two point running reverse layup
Q4 9:31 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q4 11:46 Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point turnaround jump shot
Q3 00:00 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q3 00:33 Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Q3 00:42 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q3 00:51 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q3 1:12 Dru Smith makes two point layup
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Saddiq Bey personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-111
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
123-111
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Jeremiah Fears misses two point tip layup
Zion Williamson misses two point driving floating jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Jeremiah Fears misses two point running reverse layup
Nikola Jovic turnover (bad pass) (Herbert Jones steals)
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-93
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-93
Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
102-93
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
102-91
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-93
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point turnaround jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo)
Heat personal foul
Bryce McGowens misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Pelicans offensive rebound
+1
Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
112-105
Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-93
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
104-93
+2
Dru Smith makes two point layup
112-103
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Dru Smith misses two point layup
Dru Smith offensive rebound
Kevon Looney misses two point cutting layup
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
Pelicans lineup change (Saddiq Bey, Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
+3
Pelicans makes three point jump shot
112-105
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Pelicans makes three point jump shot
112-105
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
112-105
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
104-93
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-93
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Trey Murphy III misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
112-103
+1
Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 1 of 2
112-103
+1
Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
112-103
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Dru Smith, Kel'el Ware)
Heat personal foul
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
104-93
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jeremiah Fears turnover (bad pass) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Trey Murphy III personal foul
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 3
104-93
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 3 of 3
104-93
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 3
104-93
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Pelicans personal foul
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware)
Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Bryce McGowens)
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kevon Looney offensive rebound
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
104-93
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-93
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Kevon Looney, Herbert Jones, Bryce McGowens)
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses two point stepback jump shot
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
104-93
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
104-93
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
104-93
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
104-93
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses two point tip layup
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware misses two point putback layup
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware blocks Zion Williamson's two point driving finger roll layup
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
112-103
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
112-103
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Zion Williamson offensive rebound
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
112-103
Heat personal foul
+1
Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
112-103
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
112-103
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
112-103
Heat personal foul
+1
Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
112-103
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Pelicans 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
104-93
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Pelicans makes three point jump shot
112-103
Derik Queen defensive rebound
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
112-103
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Pelicans turnover
Pelicans defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
112-103
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
112-103
Pelicans personal foul
Pelicans turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
112-103
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
112-103
Pelicans defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
58-53
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-51
+3
Pelicans makes three point jump shot
58-53
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-53
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
Pelicans personal foul
Instant replay
Instant replay
Instant replay
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-53
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Saddiq Bey offensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-53
Pelicans turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-53
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
58-53
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes technical free throw 1 of 1
58-51
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-53
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelicans turnover
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Pelicans offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware)
Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Herbert Jones, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson)
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
58-53
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
58-53
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pelicans defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kel'el Ware shooting foul (Derik Queen draws the foul)
+1
Derik Queen makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-53
+1
Derik Queen makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Karlo Matkovic, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
58-53
Heat personal foul
+1
Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-53
+1
Trey Murphy III makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
Pelicans 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses two point turnaround hook shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-53
+1
Bryce McGowens makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
Pelicans defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
47-46
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Pelicans lineup change (Trey Murphy III, Karlo Matkovic, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Bryce McGowens)
Heat turnover
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Bryce McGowens defensive rebound
Pelicans personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
47-46
Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Dru Smith, Bam Adebayo)
Pelicans lineup change (Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Derik Queen, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+3
Pelicans makes three point jump shot
47-46
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
47-46
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
47-46
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
36-31
Pelicans personal foul
Dru Smith misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Pelicans lineup change (Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Bryce McGowens)
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
34-31
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Zion Williamson misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
47-46
+2
Pelicans makes two point jump shot
47-46
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Pelicans misses three point jump shot
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Jeremiah Fears makes two point jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)
31-27
Kasparas Jakucionis turnover (bad pass) (Jeremiah Fears steals)
Herbert Jones personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
Instant replay
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
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Heat vs. Pelicans: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Pelicans
- Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Pelicans favored at -2
- Total (Over/Under): 232.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +105, Pelicans -120
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 42%
- Pelicans: 58%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 115-118 Pelicans.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 42%, while the Pelicans have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Pelicans are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Smoothie King Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Pelicans predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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