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Heat vs. Warriors prediction: Golden State to win, Stephen Curry projected for 29 points in Monday's NBA game [1/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Monday.
The Golden State Warriors will square off with the Miami Heat in NBA action at Chase Center on Monday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature stars like Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, while the Heat will be led by Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Warriors 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Warriors a 67% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Warriors winning 120-115.
According to our model, the Heat (+5.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 239.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (-108) | -5.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +184 | -218 |
| Total | o239.5 (-112) | u239.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat +5.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | -218 |
| Total | Under 239.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Under 239.5 total points.
Heat vs. Warriors player props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on Monday's Miami vs. Golden State matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Stephen Curry is projected to have 29 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 36 |
| Bam Adebayo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 39 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 26 |
| Pelle Larsson | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 50 |
| Jimmy Butler | 22 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 42 |
| Moses Moody | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| B. Podziemski | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| Draymond Green | 10 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 31 |
Heat vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Warriors and Heat at Chase Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Monday, with Stephen Curry projected for a game-high 50 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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