NBA picks today: MLK Day best bets include Jazz vs. Spurs play [1/19/2026]

Jazz +16.5 (-108)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 57.7%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Spurs (5:00PM ET, Monday)

Our model has identified value on Jazz +16.5 at -108 odds. A 57.7% probability produces an edge of 5.8%, making this the strongest play for today's NBA slate.

Jazz vs. Spurs under 242.5 points (-106)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Spurs (5:00PM ET, Monday)

Jazz vs. Spurs under 242.5 points carries a 4.4% edge and a probability of 55.8% at -106 odds, according to our model.

Heat +6.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 56.2%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Warriors (10:00PM ET, Monday)

Heat +6.5 vs. Warriors at -110 odds shows a 3.8% edge, supported by a 56.2% probability in simulations.

Pacers +7.5 (-102)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET, Monday)

A 3.6% edge and 54.1% probability make Pacers +7.5 vs. 76ers at a value play in the Pacers vs. 76ers matchup, per our model.

Mavericks +9.5 (-105)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: Mavericks vs. Knicks (5:00PM ET, Monday)

Mavericks +9.5 at -105 odds presents a 3.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.7%.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers under 234.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Thunder vs. Cavaliers (2:30PM ET, Monday)

Our model finds value on under 234.5 points in Thunder vs. Cavaliers at -105 odds, supported by an edge of 2.9%.

Heat vs. Warriors under 238.5 points (-106)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Warriors (10:00PM ET, Monday)

Our model has uncovered value on Heat vs. Warriors under 238.5 points at -106 odds. A 54.2% probability produces a 2.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's NBA action.

Bucks vs. Hawks under 231.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 53.9%
• Matchup: Bucks vs. Hawks (1:00PM ET, Monday)

A 2.7% edge on a 53.9% probability makes under 231.5 points at -105 odds a solid value play in today's Bucks vs. Hawks matchup.

Hawks ML (-135)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 59.9%
• Matchup: Bucks vs. Hawks (1:00PM ET, Monday)

Our model projects value on Hawks to win at -135 odds. A 59.9% probability produces a 2.4% edge, making Hawks the favorable ML play in Saturday’s matchup.

Warriors ML (-240)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 72.9%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Warriors (10:00PM ET, Monday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Warriors to defeat Heat at -240 odds shows a 72.9% probability and a 2.4% edge.

NBA best bets summary: Monday, 1/19/2026

As of 1:40AM ET, here are our top NBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Jazz vs. Spurs	Jazz +16.5	-108 @ FanDuel	5.8%	57.7%
Jazz vs. Spurs	Under 242.5 Points	-106 @ FanDuel	4.4%	55.8%
Heat vs. Warriors	Heat +6.5	-110 @ BetMGM	3.8%	56.2%
Pacers vs. 76ers	Pacers +7.5	-102 @ BetMGM	3.6%	54.1%
Mavericks vs. Knicks	Mavericks +9.5	-105 @ BetMGM	3.5%	54.7%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers	Under 234.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.9%	54.1%
Heat vs. Warriors	Under 238.5 Points	-106 @ FanDuel	2.7%	54.2%
Bucks vs. Hawks	Under 231.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.7%	53.9%
Bucks vs. Hawks	Hawks ML	-135 @ DraftKings	2.4%	59.9%
Heat vs. Warriors	Warriors ML	-240 @ FanDuel	2.4%	72.9%

List of upcoming NBA games to bet on [1/19/2026]

• Bucks vs. Hawks (1:00PM ET, Monday)
• Thunder vs. Cavaliers (2:30PM ET, Monday)
• Clippers vs. Wizards (3:00PM ET, Monday)
• Mavericks vs. Knicks (5:00PM ET, Monday)
• Jazz vs. Spurs (5:00PM ET, Monday)
• Pacers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET, Monday)
• Suns vs. Nets (7:30PM ET, Monday)
• Celtics vs. Pistons (8:00PM ET, Monday)
• Heat vs. Warriors (10:00PM ET, Monday)

Meet Dimebot, Dimers’ AI assistant

See how you can use Dimebot to ask questions, clarify data, and streamline your betting research.

Conclusion

Our NBA best bets are locked and loaded for January 19, 2026, featuring plays such as Jazz +16.5 and under 242.5 points also in the Jazz vs. Spurs matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NBA insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

Note: Clicking links to our sportsbook partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.