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Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Warriors NBA game on January 19, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
93
104
Jan 20, 3AM Chase Center
Jan 20, 3AM Chase Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 34 | 32 | 25 | 2 | 93 |
Warriors | 36 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 104 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 34 | 32 | 25 | 2 | 93 |
Warriors | 36 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 104 |
Q4 00:06 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:13 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:34 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:37 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:10 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:05 Heat makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:19 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:56 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Q4 5:17 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Heat personal foul
Heat misses three point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
93-104
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
93-104
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Trayce Jackson-Davis, Malevy Leons, LJ Cryer, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
93-104
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith, Keshad Johnson, Myron Gardner, Nikola Jovic)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
93-104
Heat turnover
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
93-104
Heat misses three point jump shot
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
+3
Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
93-104
Heat misses two point jump shot
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
93-104
Warriors offensive rebound
Will Richard defensive rebound
Warriors turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
93-104
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
93-104
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
93-104
Heat turnover
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving layup
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
93-104
Heat misses two point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
Warriors personal foul
Heat defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Heat turnover
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
90-98
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Instant replay
Heat misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
85-98
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
83-95
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
Heat turnover
Heat personal foul
Warriors offensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
77-92
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio)
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
75-87
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
75-85
Heat personal foul
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Quinten Post defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
75-79
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Jimmy Butler III misses two point tip layup
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 2
73-76
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
73-75
Will Richard misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
71-75
Warriors personal foul
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Norman Powell offensive rebound
Warriors turnover
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Warriors personal foul
Norman Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat personal foul
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
64-70
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
62-70
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
62-67
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
59-65
Al Horford defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
57-63
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
54-60
Heat misses two point jump shot
Will Richard offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Warriors personal foul
+1
Davion Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
54-55
Warriors personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Buddy Hield)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Heat turnover
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Warriors offensive rebound
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Warriors turnover
Instant replay
Davion Mitchell personal foul (Will Richard draws the foul)
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield)
Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
47-52
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Bam Adebayo)
Al Horford defensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
47-49
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
47-47
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
46-45
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler III, Pat Spencer, Moses Moody)
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Quinten Post offensive rebound
Quinten Post defensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
45-45
Brandin Podziemski turnover (offensive foul)
Quinten Post defensive rebound
Norman Powell defensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
43-43
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
40-43
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
40-41
Heat personal foul
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Moses Moody makes regular free throw 3 of 3
37-38
Warriors misses two point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Quinten Post, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody)
Warriors personal foul
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
33-36
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (lost ball)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
32-33
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
32-30
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
32-31
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
32-28
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 2 of 2
30-28
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
30-26
Warriors turnover
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
28-26
Al Horford defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
28-21
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
26-21
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
23-19
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
23-17
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 1 of 2
21-16
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
21-17
Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 3
16-15
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 3
17-15
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 3 of 3
18-15
Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bam Adebayo)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
15-12
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 1 of 1
11-12
Warriors personal foul
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 1
11-9
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
8-12
Heat misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
6-9
Heat misses three point jump shot
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Quinten Post defensive rebound
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
6-7
Heat misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Warriors personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
5-2
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
4-2
Heat violation
Quinten Post offensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
3-0
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
4-0
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Warriors turnover
Heat defensive rebound
Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Will Richard, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Quinten Post, Moses Moody)
Bam Adebayo vs. Quinten Post (Moses Moody gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 15 | M. Gardner | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| F | 16 | K. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| F | 5 | N. Jovic | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| G | 25 | K. Jakucionis | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| G | 12 | D. Smith | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 33 | M. Leons | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| F | 32 | T. Jackson-Davis | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| G | 61 | P. Spencer | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| G | 7 | B. Hield | 16 | 4 | 2 |
| G | 18 | L. Cryer | 3 | 0 | 0 |
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Heat vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Warriors
- Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Warriors favored at -5.5
- Total (Over/Under): 239.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +175, Warriors -205
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 31%
- Warriors: 69%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 116-121 Warriors.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 31%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 69%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Chase Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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