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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, January 19, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/19.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, January 19, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.9% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 18.0% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.5% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.6% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.2% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.2% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.3% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.7% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.4% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 13.3% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 13.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 4.9% | +1100 | 13.3% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 4.2% | +500 | 20.9% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 2.7% | +950 | 12.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.5% | +750 | 14.3% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.3% | +950 | 11.8% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.9% | +600 | 15.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.8% | +500 | 17.5% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.6% | +600 | 14.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/19.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, January 19, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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