Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win ‘MNF’ Week 15 [2025]

The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 15 action at Acrisure Stadium on Monday, beginning at 8:15PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Steelers as the most likely winner of the Dolphins vs. Steelers game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Who will win ‘Monday Night Football’?

Since our Dolphins-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Steelers a 61% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 22-20.

According to our model, the Dolphins (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43 points has a 53% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.

Dolphins vs. Steelers odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Dolphins	Steelers
Spread	+3 (+100)	-3 (-120)
Moneyline	+165	-180
Total	o43 (-110)	u43 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Steelers picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dolphins +3	+100
Moneyline	Dolphins	+165
Total	Over 43	-110

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +3 at the spread.

Dolphins vs. Steelers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Steelers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, De'Von Achane is most likely to score an anytime TD in Dolphins vs. Steelers.

Our projections give Achane a 52.2% chance of scoring a TD at Acrisure Stadium, while the running back is a 13.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	52.2%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	37.8%
Darren Waller (TE)	25.2%
Malik Washington (WR)	22.1%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	17.5%

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	40.7%
DK Metcalf (WR)	39.3%
Jaylen Warren (RB)	35.9%
Pat Freiermuth (TE)	18.1%
Jonnu Smith (TE)	14.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	13.0%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	8.3%
Darren Waller (TE)	5.1%
Malik Washington (WR)	4.4%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	3.4%

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	First TD Probability
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	10.3%
DK Metcalf (WR)	9.9%
Jaylen Warren (RB)	8.8%
Pat Freiermuth (TE)	3.9%
Jonnu Smith (TE)	3.2%

Dolphins vs Steelers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is projected for 201 passing yards. The Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 219 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	201
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)	219

Dolphins rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
De'Von Achane	81
Jaylen Wright	22
Ollie Gordon	10

Steelers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jaylen Warren	52
Kenneth Gainwell	30
Kaleb Johnson	8

Dolphins receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Jaylen Waddle	68
Darren Waller	30
Malik Washington	30
De'Von Achane	30
Greg Dulcich	20

Steelers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
DK Metcalf	62
Darnell Washington	26
Kenneth Gainwell	26
Adam Thielen	21
Pat Freiermuth	21

Dolphins vs. Steelers game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 15 game between the Steelers and Dolphins at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Date: Monday, December 15, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Steelers, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 15 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Dolphins vs. Steelers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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