Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction: New England favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]

NFL Week 18 action continues on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET as the Miami Dolphins look to defy the odds against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Dolphins vs. Patriots game.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Dolphins-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Patriots an 88% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 28-16.

According to our model, the Dolphins (+14.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Dolphins	Patriots
Spread	+14.5 (-110)	-14.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+810	-1100
Total	o44.5 (-102)	u44.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dolphins vs. Patriots picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dolphins +14.5	-110
Moneyline	Dolphins	+810
Total	Over 44.5	-102

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins +14.5 at the spread.

Dolphins vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Patriots?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, TreVeyon Henderson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Henderson a 40.7% chance of getting in for six at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 9.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jaylen Wright (RB)	36.5%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	31.8%
Greg Dulcich (TE)	19.0%
Malik Washington (WR)	18.8%
Theo Wease (WR)	15.2%

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	40.7%
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	40.2%
Hunter Henry (TE)	36.5%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	34.3%
Drake Maye (QB)	25.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
Jaylen Wright (RB)	6.7%
Ollie Gordon (RB)	5.7%
Greg Dulcich (TE)	3.1%
Malik Washington (WR)	3.1%
Theo Wease (WR)	2.4%

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	9.7%
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	9.5%
Hunter Henry (TE)	8.4%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	7.8%
Drake Maye (QB)	5.5%

Dolphins vs Patriots player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Quinn Ewers is projected to have a quiet game with 187 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 246 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Quinn Ewers (MIA)	187
Drake Maye (NE)	246

Dolphins rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jaylen Wright	58
Ollie Gordon	24
Donovan Edwards	11

Patriots rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
TreVeyon Henderson	55
Rhamondre Stevenson	39
Drake Maye	19

Dolphins receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Greg Dulcich	41
Malik Washington	36
Theo Wease	26
Cedrick Wilson	25
Jaylen Wright	15

Patriots receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs	62
Hunter Henry	49
Kayshon Boutte	35
Kyle Williams	26
Rhamondre Stevenson	18

Dolphins vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 18 game between the Patriots and Dolphins at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 18 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Dolphins vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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