Messi, Mbappe and Haaland create World Cup history with massive 1-in-396,825 longshot

Monday's World Cup slate saw three of the biggest names in world soccer score two goals each, and a lot of online gamblers cashing in on it too. But the crazier thing? It happened last week as well. With the same three players no less!

Let's look at Dimers' pre-game probabilities, available in full to Dimers Pro subscribers for every match, to determine just how likely it was that Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland would be able to pull off this incredible piece of World Cup history.

The streets will talk about back-to-back Messi/Mbappe/Haaland 2+ goal parlays for generations.

— Dimers (@DimersCom) June 23, 2026

When looking at our World Cup player projections from these two recent match days, we can see that each of them were high on the board for most likely scorers. But, that doesn't necessarily mean that they all should have scored. 

Looking back at the matches on Tuesday, June 16, Haaland led the entire slate with probabilities of 55.2% to score anytime and 20.2% to score 2+ times. Following him were the other two highlighted stars, with Messi at 40.3% and 10.2%, and Mbappe projected as a 39.7% and 7.8% chance.

When multiplying these probabilities, you get 8.8% for them to all score at least once, and just a 0.16% chance of each scoring two or more. In other words, the likelihood of them all scoring a brace (2+) was +62400 or a 1 in 625 chance! 

Can lightning strike twice?

Messi will be hardest leg but I’m not doubting him. Let’s hope for another work of art as these guys chase the Golden Boot! pic.twitter.com/A60knmdcdg

— BeatinTheBookie.com®️ (@BeatinTheBookie) June 22, 2026

After a host of bettors celebrated massive multi-goal parlay wins the first time it happened, it became one of the most popular plays of the World Cup so far the second time around, with posts across social media growing in the lead up to the first game of the night featuring Messi's Argentina.

The tweets went us far as BookItTrent showing doubt, stating that anyone playing the bet after it hit last week needed to grow up.

If you bet Messi, Mbappé and Haaland to score today you need to grow up.

— Trent Attyah (@BookitWithTrent) June 22, 2026

Well, one thing is for sure, Trent, their bankrolls grew! 

Heading into this second round of fixtures on Monday, the math was very similar. Looking at the Dimers Pro projections, Mbappe took the top spot this time with a 22.0% chance to score 2+ goals, while Messi sat at 8.8% and Haaland rounded it out at 8.1%. 

Once again, multiplying those together resulted in an exact 0.16% probability, meaning bettors were chasing another +62,400, 1-in-625 longshot for the trio to repeat their two-goal efforts.

After Messi initially missed a penalty early in the game, bettors may have feared that it just simply wasn't going to happen again. But once the GOAT scored in the 38th and 95th minutes of the game, there was hope. 

Mbappe then opened the scoring for France (another popular parlay was for the three of them to score first in their respective games - only Haaland didn't), before making it a double after an extended halftime break due to extreme weather in Philadelphia.

With only the Manchester City superstar to finish it off, and Norway facing a Senegal side who conceded four goals in their tournament opener, it was looking like it may happen again.

Then, as he does so often for club and country, Haaland went bang, scoring twice in the first 13 minutes of the second half to cash bets across the globe, with this HardRock Bet user securing almost $150k from a $1.5k wager.

THE MOST INSANE PARLAY OF THE WORLD CUP HAS HIT!

$1,578.94 ➡️ $147,759.18 https://t.co/52UXa9gS0H pic.twitter.com/L15EmDcINC

— Hard Rock Bet (@HardRockBet) June 23, 2026

Now, although it appears nobody rolled over their winnings from the first 2+ goal parlay to the next week, we still wanted to know just likely this quasi-six-leg parlay was to cash.

Stripping away the sportsbooks' compounding juice, the pure mathematical fair odds for this six-leg miracle sit at a staggering +39682440, or a true 1-in-396,825 longshot.

With the Golden Boot race heating up between the three as well as Harry Kane, projections like these will be come even more valuable to fans and bettors alike as we progress through the tournament.

Want to find projections like these before they happen? Sign up to Dimers Pro with a free 3-day trial now.