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Read Article Türkiye vs. United States prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Türkiye vs United States predictions for World Cup 2026 Thursday.
Turkey will face United States in Group D of the World Cup 2026 at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts United States as the most likely winner of the Turkey vs. United States game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Turkey vs. United States prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Turkey and United States, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 26.7% chance of Turkey winning, a 49.8% chance for United States, and a 23.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57.5% chance of going over, with a 58.6% chance that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, United States holds a 24.2% probability to win without conceding, with Türkiye at 12.2%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either Turkey or United States at 76.6%.
United States vs. Türkiye odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Turkey | United States | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +260 | -105 | +310 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -135 | +110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Turkey vs. United States picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: United States @ +310 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -135 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Türkiye @ +525 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: United States or Draw @ -340 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: Yes @ -150 via BetMGM
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Turkey vs. United States: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Türkiye 1-1 United States | 10.9% |
| Türkiye 1-2 United States | 9.6% |
| Türkiye 0-1 United States | 8.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Turkey vs. United States player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Türkiye-United States:
Turkey
- Deniz Gul: 16.1% probability
- Arda Guler: 16.1% probability
- Kenan Yildiz: 13.6% probability
- Baris Yilmaz: 12.6% probability
- Hakan Calhanoglu: 11.5% probability
United States
- Haji Wright: 30.4% probability
- Giovanni Reyna: 20.6% probability
- Malik Tillman: 18.7% probability
- Weston McKennie: 17.4% probability
- Sergino Dest: 14.7% probability
Türkiye vs. United States game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's FIFA World Cup action between Turkey and United States at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Turkey vs. United States
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Turkey has a 26.7% win probability on Thursday, United States has a 49.8% win probability, and there is a 23.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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