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Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [12/22/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Memphis Grizzlies in NBA action at Paycom Center on Monday, beginning at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Grizzlies vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Grizzlies will rely on Jaren Jackson, Cam Spencer and Santi Aldama.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 87% chance of beating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-108.
According to our model, the Grizzlies (+15.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 230.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Grizzlies | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-106) | -15.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +810 | -1350 |
| Total | o230.5 (-112) | u230.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +15.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | +810 |
| Total | Under 230.5 | -105 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies +15.5 at the spread.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder player props
NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Monday's Grizzlies vs. Thunder game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Jaren Jackson is expected to lead the Grizzlies with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Grizzlies prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Grizzlies are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Cam Spencer | 17 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 36 |
| Santi Aldama | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 36 |
| Cedric Coward | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 |
| Jaylen Wells | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 54 |
| Jalen Williams | 19 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 39 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 36 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| Isaiah Joe | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
Grizzlies vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Thunder and Grizzlies at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 87% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Monday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 54 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Grizzlies vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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