Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [12/22/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will square off with the Memphis Grizzlies in NBA action at Paycom Center on Monday, starting at 9:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Grizzlies vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, while the Grizzlies will be led by Jaren Jackson, Cam Spencer and Santi Aldama.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder an 87% chance of defeating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 123-110.

According to our model, the Grizzlies (+15.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Grizzlies	Thunder
Spread	+15.5 (-110)	-15.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+750	-1200
Total	o234.5 (-106)	u234.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Grizzlies +15.5	-110
Moneyline	Grizzlies	+750
Total	Under 234.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies +15.5 at the spread.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder player props

Betting on Grizzlies vs. Thunder NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Jaren Jackson is expected to lead the Grizzlies with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Grizzlies prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Grizzlies are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jaren Jackson	17	5	2	2	33
Cam Spencer	16	4	6	3	35
Santi Aldama	15	7	4	2	35
Cedric Coward	13	7	3	2	30
Jaylen Wells	12	5	2	2	24

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	55
Jalen Williams	21	6	6	2	42
Ajay Mitchell	14	4	4	1	29
Isaiah Joe	13	3	2	3	24
K. Williams	9	5	2	2	23

Grizzlies vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Thunder and Grizzlies at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 9:30 PM ET.

• Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
• Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 87% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Monday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 55 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Grizzlies vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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