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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, December 22, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, December 22, 2025—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry and Donovan Mitchell lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 22, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 19.2% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.9% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 15.3% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.8% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.0% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 12.3% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.1% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 22, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 3.8% | +550 | 19.2% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.0% | +600 | 15.3% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 0.5% | +850 | 11.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.4% | +600 | 14.7% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 0.3% | +1000 | 9.4% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 0.1% | +950 | 9.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, December 22, 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, with Gilgeous-Alexander shaping as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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