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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, December 22, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, December 22, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 22, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.9% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.4% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.1% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.0% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.2% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 11.9% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 22, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Spencer | Grizzlies | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 1.1% | +1100 | 9.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, December 22, 2025, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Cam Spencer shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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