March Madness: Unders Dominate During Opening Days of NCAA Tournament

There’s a common theory among recreational sports bettors that people that bet the Under on total points markets are boring. Well, if the opening days of March Madness are anything to go by, they’re boring people with fat pockets. Low scoring has dominated throughout the opening days of the March Madness, leading to a whopping 75% of games going Under so far.

What does it all mean, and can we profit on Sunday? We take a look.

RELATED: NCAA College Basketball Best Bets

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March Madness Betting: The Under Dominates

With 44 games in the books, beginning from Wednesday’s First four up until Alabama’s win over Maryland on Saturday night, the Under is 33-11 (75%). If a bettor wagered $100 on every single game going under the total points market set by the sportsbooks, they would be up an amazing $1900.03.

Why is this happening? Well, the form of some of the top seeds may have something to do with it. Already we’ve lost No. 1 seeds Purdue and Kansas, while No. 2 seed Arizona was bounced in the first round by Princeton, who have since moved onto the Sweet 16 after backing up their shock win on Thursday with an overpowering performance against No. 7 Missouri.

RELATED: Betting Overs May Be Sexy, But Betting Unders Is Smart

But even still, 75% of games going Under is a huge number, even if a select number of top dogs didn’t live up to the scoring expectations of the oddsmakers. Ultimately this might just be a case of the sportsbooks having a nightmare of a weekend setting the lines.

So, with the leading betting strategy of this year’s tournament now established, can we profit before there’s a correction?

We dived into Sunday’s second round games and put our prediction model - which simulates every game 10,000 times - to the test, to determine which games are the most likely to go under today:

The March Madness games likely to go Under on Sunday: 

• Pittsburgh vs. Xavier: Under 150.5 points (52% probability according to our model)
• Creighton vs. Baylor: Under 144.5 points (53% probability)
• Miami vs. Indiana: Under 145.5 points (51% probability)

Since 2018, the Under is 177-130 (57%) in NCAA Tournament games. While we might not expect this year's success rate to stay at such a high number, there is definitely validity on betting low scoring games from here on out.

Find out who we're betting on for every basketball game in the Second Round via our College Basketball Bet Hub, where we deliver you NBA predictions and suggested bets, or check out the College Basketball Betting News section.