Sports Betting: Why Betting The Over Is Sexy, But Betting The Under Is Smart

There’s no doubt about it, betting the Over is far more enjoyable than betting the Under. Put simply, by betting Overs you’re essentially willing the game you’re watching to be a high-scoring, exciting affair. Over betting, also known as "going over the total," refers to placing a bet on the combined number of points, goals, or runs scored by both teams in a sporting event to be more than a certain number set by the bookmaker. For example, if the total for a football game is set at 45 points and you place a bet on the Over, you are betting that the combined score of both teams will be more than 45 points. If the final score is 46-28, you would win your bet because the combined score is 74, which is more than 45.

PREDICTIONS: Access the best bets for every NFL and NBA game 


But, what if we told you that literally all of the sportsbooks factor the publics’ fascination with betting Overs into their models when setting their lines? For instance, an NBA total points line that should be set at 220, is actually set at 222.5? Or how total points lines - otherwise known as the Over/Under - in NFL games are set a point or two higher than they should be, also? This occurs for no other reason than the fact the ‘books know the public loves to bet the Over.

While all of the above is true, and probably quite surprising to some, it also presents us bettors with a great opportunity, and that opportunity is betting the Under. The inflated total points line of 222.5, when it should’ve been set at 220, is now even more appealing as an Unders play. By betting the Under 222.5 - when it was probably originally graded at 220 - we’re getting an additional 2.5 points in our favor, for nothing.

When you consider that literally every game in which a goal, run or points total line is set will spend the vast majority of that contest hovering below the set line, it makes total sense that there is often more value to be found by betting the Under.

PLAYER PROPS: Use the Dimers predictive analytics model to identify the best prop bets to place

Further, in almost every case where the Over does go on to eventually hit, that particular game still would have spent the vast majority of the contest ‘Under’ the points, goal or run total line - before a late surge past it. Not always, but certainly more often than not.

So why the obsession with betting the Over?

Well, as mentioned at the top of this article, betting the Over is certainly the sexy thing to do, no doubt. Bettors love cheering for every point, goal or run - which is totally understandable - but the sportsbooks also leverage this to their advantage by essentially penalizing Overs bettors by raising their lines a point or two, sometimes even more.

While NBA and NFL Unders are obvious plays in terms of taking advantage of an inflated total points line, there are some other, less conventional bets worth considering if you want to go a bit deeper.

While not an Over/Under bet as such, one of this author’s favorite wagers is correct score betting on soccer, specifically 0-0. Literally every soccer game ever played started at 0-0 - and soccer is not a high scoring sport - so when you see soccer odds of +900 or +1000 on offer for the game to end goalless, it starts to get interesting. At the very least you will usually get 20-30 minutes of enjoyment before a very inconsiderate player finds the back of the net and dashes your hopes of a nice payday.

If you want something slightly more conservative, there’s good money to be made on 0-0 first half correct score bets in soccer, too. This halves the amount of time you need to pace around the lounge-room, willing every shot on goal to sail wide or to draw a save from a goalkeeper, but obviously offers less attractive odds, too.

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When betting Overs, sports bettors are so often robbed of a winning ticket through something as minor as an injury to a key player, or even a contentious referee decision. So, whether you’re convinced about the merits of Unders betting or not, the fact remains that for an Over bet to hit, bettors usually need everything to go right, but when betting Unders they just need one, oftentimes very minor, thing to go wrong.

The best sportsbook offers for Over/Under betting

As you're about to see, not all sportsbooks are the same. Some offer better odds and more tempting lines, and some don't. Your job is to make sure you're armed with funded sports book accounts for all of the best online sportsbooks, so you can capitalize on the edges Dimers identifies for sports bettors across the U.S..

Why is this important? Because our technology scans all the major sportsbooks to identify opportunities to take advantage of those instances where the oddsmakers get it wrong in assessing their Total points, goals and runs lines. And when the sportsbooks get it wrong, it means we can make some money betting on the Over/Under.

DraftKings Over/Under Markets

New users will get $150 in free bets when they place just a $5 bet on any Points Total bet. DraftKings is often the sportsbook with the best odds for Over/Under bets here.

DraftKings Bet $5, Win $150

Bet the Over/Under with Caesars Sportsbook

Caesar himself is offering new customers their first bet on him, up to $1250! If your first Over/Under bet loses, you will get your entire stake back to take another swing. On top of that, you can score Tier and Reward credits to use on a number of different things, such as hotel room and restaurants. Join Caesars Sportsbook here.

Caesars Sportsbook $1250 risk-free bet

BetMGM is the King of the Over/Under Bet

If you're yet to join BetMGM, today is as good of a time as any. Get risk-free bet up to $1000 to use on a Total Points bet when you create an account and make your first deposit here.

BetMGM Risk-free bet up to $1000

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