May 21, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, May 21, 2026
Read Article Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Thursday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Jovana Nogic, will face off against the Sparks, featuring Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Sparks and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 64% chance of beating the Sparks.
According to our model, the Mercury (-2.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 66% chance of staying under.
Sparks vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sparks | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -142 |
| Total | o177.5 (-108) | u177.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sparks vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | -142 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -105 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sparks vs. Mercury player props
WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Thursday's Los Angeles vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 20 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sparks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Plum | 20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 37 |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 18 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Dearica Hamby | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 36 |
| Ariel Atkins | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 31 |
| Rae Burrell | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 17 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 52 |
| Jovana Nogic | 16 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 30 |
Sparks vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Mercury and Sparks at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Thursday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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