Jun 13, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, June 13, 2026
Read Article Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Why Los Angeles is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [6/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Saturday.
The Phoenix Mercury will face the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Saturday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Sparks as the most likely winner of the Sparks vs. Mercury game.
The Mercury, powered by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Sparks, whose lineup includes Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Sparks and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Sparks a 57.3% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Sparks (-1.5) have a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 62.5% chance of staying under,.
Sparks vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sparks | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -122 | +105 |
| Total | o174.5 (-106) | u174.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sparks vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sparks -1.5 | -112 |
| Moneyline | Sparks | -122 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sparks vs. Mercury player props
Looking for Sparks vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Kelsey Plum is expected to lead the Sparks with 20 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kelsey Plum is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.9% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sparks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Plum | 20 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 38 |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 18 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| Dearica Hamby | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 33 |
| Ariel Atkins | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Rae Burrell | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 47 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| Natasha Mack | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
Sparks vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Mercury and Sparks at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Saturday, June 13, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Sparks, with a 57.3% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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