Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - May 14, 2022

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, reached the 2022 NHL Playoffs, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins advancing to the next round of the competition.

Dimers' best betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, plus game predictions, best odds and player props, are detailed below.


Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Using high-tech machine learning and data, has simulated Saturday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' independent predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Maple Leafs a 53% chance of beating the Lightning.

More: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Simulated 10K Times

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Odds

  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190), Lightning +1.5 (-208)
  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs -130, Lightning +115
  • Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-120)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are -1.5 favorites versus the Lightning, with +190 at BetMGM the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, Caesars Sportsbook has the best odds currently on offer at -208.

BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -130, which means you can risk $130 to win $100, for a total payout of $230, if they get the W.

Meanwhile, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +115, where you can bet $100 to profit $115, earning a total payout of $215, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with Caesars Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +105, while BetMGM currently has the best odds for the Under at -120.

As always, make sure you check all the sportsbooks available in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 51% chance of going Under.

More: Live Scores for All Major Sports

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs


Dimers' best bets are based on detailed simulations and wagering intelligence to help you make smarter decisions with the legal sportsbooks in America.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, betting on the Lightning moneyline is the best option due to the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.

Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit on this occasion, Over 6.5 is our best bet owing to the better odds (+105) that are available from Caesars Sportsbook.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Guide

Use our interactive widget below to see the latest Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Tampa Bay vs. Toronto, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.


Dimers has full coverage of Saturday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The data is in.

Featured below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you discover the best prop picks for Saturday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews a 10.6% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 49.4% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.


First Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Nikita Kucherov: 7.7% probability
  • Steven Stamkos: 6.9% probability
  • Brayden Point: 5.1% probability
  • Ross Colton: 4.8% probability
  • Alex Killorn: 3.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Auston Matthews: 10.6% probability
  • William Nylander: 5.5% probability
  • Mitch Marner: 5.5% probability
  • John Tavares: 5.1% probability
  • Ilya Mikheyev: 3.7% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Nikita Kucherov: 37.8% probability
  • Steven Stamkos: 36.5% probability
  • Brayden Point: 30.1% probability
  • Ross Colton: 28.3% probability
  • Alex Killorn: 21.3% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Auston Matthews: 49.4% probability
  • William Nylander: 30.9% probability
  • Mitch Marner: 30.8% probability
  • John Tavares: 27.7% probability
  • Ilya Mikheyev: 21.7% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates frequently, so check this article for the latest betting analysis ahead of Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Saturday May 14, 2022.


Lightning-Maple Leafs Overtime Insurance Promo

Enjoy some peace of mind when betting on Tampa Bay vs. Toronto this Saturday thanks to BetMGM.

If you place a bet on Lightning vs. Maple Leafs and your team loses in overtime, BetMGM will refund you up to $25 in Free Bets.

Simply join BetMGM using this exclusive link, opt in to the NHL Overtime Insurance promotion, and place a moneyline bet on Tampa Bay vs. Toronto.

This offer is available to all BetMGM users, and it's one of our favorite promos!

Note: when you click or tap on a link on Dimers that leads to a third-party website that we have a commercial arrangement with (such as a sportsbook), we may earn a referral fee.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2022 Game Info

Saturday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Lightning in the NHL Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

  • Date: Saturday May 14, 2022
  • Time: 7:00PM ET / 4:00PM PT
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Want to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NHL? We've reviewed the best available welcome offers in each legal betting state.

Want more NHL predictions like this?

To get more NHL betting predictions like you've just read for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, all you've gotta do is visit our NHL Betting News section. It's that easy – they're all there!

We use the power of predictive analytics to find edges in the markets so we can produce the most comprehensive NHL betting previews out there. We're able to do this by comparing our in-house probabilities against the sportsbooks' odds (aka Vegas odds) the minute they go live.

So, get ahead of the game and beat the 'books today – it's only a click away.

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