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Raiders vs. Texans prediction: Houston favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Houston Texans will square off with the Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 16 action at NRG Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Texans as the most likely winner of the Raiders vs. Texans game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Raiders vs. Texans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Raiders-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Raiders and Texans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Texans a 93% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 26-12.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Raiders and Texans each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 38.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Raiders vs. Texans odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Raiders | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +14.5 (-122) | -14.5 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +800 | -1200 |
| Total | o38.5 (-112) | u38.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Raiders vs. Texans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans -14.5 | +100 |
| Moneyline | Texans | -1200 |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -112 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans to win.
Raiders vs. Texans TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Raiders vs. Texans?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 16, Nico Collins is most likely to score an anytime TD in Raiders vs. Texans.
Our projections give Collins a 41.3% chance of scoring a TD at NRG Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.2% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 34.8% |
| Brock Bowers (TE) | 28.4% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 17.9% |
| Jack Bech (WR) | 11.0% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 10.2% |
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins (WR) | 41.3% |
| Woody Marks (RB) | 41.2% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 28.2% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 26.1% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 24.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 8.0% |
| Brock Bowers (TE) | 6.2% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 3.7% |
| Jack Bech (WR) | 2.2% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 2.0% |
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins (WR) | 11.2% |
| Woody Marks (RB) | 11.2% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 7.0% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 6.4% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 6.0% |
Raiders vs Texans player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Raiders and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Raiders' Geno Smith is projected to have a quiet game with 186 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 232 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Geno Smith (LV) | 186 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 232 |
Raiders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 49 |
| Geno Smith | 11 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 65 |
| Nick Chubb | 23 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 20 |
Raiders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 51 |
| Tre Tucker | 34 |
| Tyler Lockett | 25 |
| Jack Bech | 25 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 23 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 70 |
| Dalton Schultz | 45 |
| Jayden Higgins | 41 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 21 |
| Christian Kirk | 16 |
Raiders vs. Texans game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 game between the Texans and Raiders at NRG Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: NRG Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Texans, with a 93% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Raiders vs. Texans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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