Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Game 3 of 2025 WNBA Finals

The Phoenix Mercury will take on the Las Vegas Aces in WNBA Finals action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Wednesday, beginning at 8:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of Game 3.

"Our team has simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Aces-Mercury game 10,000 times," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate the Mercury's chance of winning at 66%, with the Aces at 34%."

The Mercury, who have star players like Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, are set to take on the Aces, featuring A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

For expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Aces vs. Mercury predictions page.

Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win Game 3?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 66% chance of beating the Aces in Game 3 of the series.

According to our model, the Aces (+7.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 162.5-point over/under has a 56% chance of going over.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Mercury
Spread	+7.5 (-125)	-7.5 (-106)
Moneyline	+235	-180
Total	o162.5 (-115)	u162.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Aces vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 3

Our model's biggest edge in today's Aces vs. Mercury matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Aces vs. Mercury matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces in scoring, while Satou Sabally is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 updates and essential details

Wednesday's Game 3 between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Wednesday's Aces vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Aces vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Aces on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Aces vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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