Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Game 4 of 2025 WNBA Finals

The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will lock horns in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals at Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday, starting at 8:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of Game 4.

The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

For a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Aces vs. Mercury predictions page.

Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win Game 4?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Aces and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Aces a 58% chance of defeating the Mercury in Game 4 of the series.

According to our model, the Mercury (+2.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 164.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Mercury
Spread	-2.5 (-110)	+2.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-145	+130
Total	o164.5 (-110)	u164.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Aces vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 4

Our model's strongest edge in today's Aces vs. Mercury matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 player props

WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Friday's Aces vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces in scoring, while Kahleah Copper is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 updates and essential details

Friday's Game 4 between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Friday, October 10, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Dimers' in-depth preview of Friday's Aces vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Aces vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Aces vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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