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Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction: Kansas City favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Las Vegas Raiders will face the favored Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 18 action at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, starting at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Chiefs vs. Raiders game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Chiefs-Raiders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 68% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 20-16.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Chiefs and Raiders each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 35.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Chiefs vs. Raiders odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -205 | +180 |
| Total | o35.5 (-110) | u35.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chiefs vs. Raiders picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs -3.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | -205 |
| Total | Over 35.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs to win.
Chiefs vs. Raiders TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Raiders?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, Kareem Hunt is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chiefs vs. Raiders.
Our projections give Hunt a 45.2% chance of getting in for six at Allegiant Stadium, while the running back is a 13.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 45.2% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 25.0% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 24.0% |
| Brashard Smith (RB) | 22.1% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) | 19.0% |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 44.9% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 22.5% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 21.8% |
| Jack Bech (WR) | 14.2% |
| Tyler Lockett (WR) | 12.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (RB) | 13.3% |
| Travis Kelce (TE) | 6.4% |
| Hollywood Brown (WR) | 6.1% |
| Brashard Smith (RB) | 5.5% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) | 4.7% |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 13.4% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 5.7% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 5.5% |
| Jack Bech (WR) | 3.4% |
| Tyler Lockett (WR) | 3.0% |
Chiefs vs Raiders player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Raiders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Chris Oladokun is projected to have a quiet game with 162 passing yards. The Raiders' Kenny Pickett is expected to throw for just 136 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Chris Oladokun (KC) | 162 |
| Kenny Pickett (LV) | 136 |
Chiefs rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 53 |
| Dameon Pierce | 26 |
| Brashard Smith | 19 |
Raiders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 68 |
| Zamir White | 9 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 |
Chiefs receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 46 |
| Hollywood Brown | 34 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 31 |
| Jalen Royals | 29 |
| Noah Gray | 16 |
Raiders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 44 |
| Tre Tucker | 39 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 31 |
| Jack Bech | 28 |
| Tyler Lockett | 23 |
Chiefs vs. Raiders game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 game between the Raiders and Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Chiefs, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Raiders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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