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Colts vs. Texans prediction: Houston favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Houston Texans will take on the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 18 action at NRG Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Texans as the most likely winner of the Colts vs. Texans game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Colts vs. Texans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Colts-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Colts and Texans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Texans an 82% chance of beating the Colts in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 22-14.
According to our model, the Colts (+9.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Colts vs. Texans odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-104) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +410 | -535 |
| Total | o37.5 (-110) | u37.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Colts vs. Texans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts +9.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Colts | +410 |
| Total | Under 37.5 | -108 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts +9.5 at the spread.
Colts vs. Texans TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Colts vs. Texans?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Colts vs. Texans.
Our projections give Taylor a 52.5% chance of getting in for six at NRG Stadium, while the running back is a 12.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (RB) | 52.5% |
| Tyler Warren (TE) | 21.6% |
| Michael Pittman (WR) | 20.1% |
| Riley Leonard (QB) | 19.1% |
| Alec Pierce (WR) | 18.8% |
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 46.6% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 30.4% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 27.1% |
| Jawhar Jordan (RB) | 23.1% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 21.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (RB) | 12.7% |
| Tyler Warren (TE) | 4.1% |
| Michael Pittman (WR) | 3.8% |
| Riley Leonard (QB) | 3.6% |
| Alec Pierce (WR) | 3.5% |
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 13.1% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 7.5% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 6.6% |
| Jawhar Jordan (RB) | 5.5% |
| Christian Kirk (WR) | 5.0% |
Colts vs Texans player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Colts and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Riley Leonard is projected to have a quiet game with 161 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 221 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Riley Leonard (IND) | 161 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 221 |
Colts rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 70 |
| Riley Leonard | 21 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 57 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 32 |
| C.J. Stroud | 11 |
Colts receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 37 |
| Tyler Warren | 35 |
| Alec Pierce | 33 |
| Josh Downs | 28 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 9 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Jayden Higgins | 53 |
| Dalton Schultz | 46 |
| Christian Kirk | 39 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 28 |
| Jaylin Noel | 26 |
Colts vs. Texans game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 game between the Texans and Colts at NRG Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: NRG Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Texans, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Colts vs. Texans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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