Astros vs. Rangers prediction: Why Texas is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [7/12/2026]
Get Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Globe Life Field on Sunday, commencing at 2:35 PM ET.
MacKenzie Gore (5-8, 4.72 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Rangers, up against Cristian Javier (0-1, 10.22 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 54.4% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Astros vs. Rangers matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Rangers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rangers a 54.4% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 61.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 56.1% chance of going over,.
Astros vs. Rangers odds [7/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (+158) |
| Moneyline | +122 | -127 |
| Total | o8.5 (+100) | u8.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Rangers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Rangers -1.5 | polymarket+158 |
| Moneyline | Astros | novig+122 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Rangers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Rangers and Astros at Globe Life Field is scheduled to start at 2:35 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 2:35 PM ET/11:35AM PT
- Venue: Globe Life Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rangers, with a 54.4% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
