MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Red Sox vs. Mets play [7/12/2026]

Mets +1.5 (-144)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 64.7%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Mets +1.5 at -144 odds. A 64.7% probability produces an edge of 5.7%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Braves vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 runs (+111)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 53%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET)

Braves vs. Cardinals over 8.5 runs carries a 5.6% edge and a probability of 53% at +111 odds, according to our model.

Mets ML (+113)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Matchup: Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)

Mets ML at +113 odds shows a 5.4% edge, supported by a 52.4% probability in simulations.

Astros vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET)

A 4.9% edge and 55.9% probability make Astros vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs a value play in the Astros vs. Rangers matchup, per our model.

Mariners ML (+127)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 48.8%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Rays (1:40PM ET)

Mariners ML at +127 odds presents a 4.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 48.8%.

Rockies vs. Giants Over 8.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Giants (4:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Rockies vs. Giants at -106 odds, supported by an edge of 4.6%.

Angels vs. Twins Over 8.5 runs (-111)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 56.9%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Twins (2:10PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Angels vs. Twins Over 8.5 runs at -111 odds. A 56.9% probability produces a 4.3% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Blue Jays vs. Padres Over 8.5 runs (+108)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 51.8%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Padres (4:10PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on a 51.8% probability makes Over 8.5 runs at +108 odds a solid value play in today's Blue Jays vs. Padres matchup.

Royals vs. OriolesOver 9.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 53.5%
• Matchup: Royals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 9.5 runs at +100 odds. A 53.5% probability produces a 3.5% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Brewers vs. Pirates Over 6.5 runs (-120)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 57.5%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Pirates (12:15PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Brewers vs. Pirates Over 6.5 runs at -120 odds shows a 57.5% probability and a 2.9% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Sunday, 7/12/2026

As of 2:09AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [7/12/2026]

• Brewers vs. Pirates (12:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Royals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Yankees vs. Nationals (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Phillies vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Cubs vs. Reds (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Mariners vs. Rays (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Guardians vs. Marlins (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Red Sox vs. Mets (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Athletics vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Angels vs. Twins (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Braves vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Astros vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Rockies vs. Giants (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Blue Jays vs. Padres (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• D-Backs vs. Dodgers (4:10PM ET, Sunday)

See How Dimers Pro Enhances Your Best Bets

Discover the difference our best bets make with Dimers Pro. Check out this explainer video to see how you can gain an edge.

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for July 12, 2026, featuring plays such as Mets +1.5 vs. Red Sox and over 8.5 runs in the Braves vs. Cardinals matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.