Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/11/2026]
Get Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Chicago Cubs, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Saturday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
The Reds will have Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA) for the Cubs.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Reds.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Cubs vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Cubs a 51.5% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 60.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 10.5 runs has a 53.5% chance of staying under,.
Cubs vs. Reds odds [7/11/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-141) |
| Moneyline | -108 | +106 |
| Total | o10.5 (+113) | u10.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | novig-141 |
| Moneyline | Reds | novig+106 |
| Total | Under 10.5 | novig-115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Reds and Cubs at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
