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Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Monday, September 18

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.

Check out our Best Bets for MLB and MLS, every single day!

Now, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded US Sportsbook account when betting on sports.

Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

  • Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
  • Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
  • The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
  • Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Monday, September 18.

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER OPPONENT HR ALLOWED IP HR/9
John Means (BAL) @HOU 2 5 3.60
Connor Phillips (CIN) MIN 3 8.2 3.29
Lance Lynn (LAD) DET 41 166.2 2.22
Adam Wainwright (STL) MIL 20 94 1.91
JP Sears (OAK) SEA 31 157.2 1.77
Joe Ryan (MIN) @CIN 28 145.2 1.74
Joan Adon (WSH) CHW 6 38 1.42
Ty Blach (COL) @SD 10 64 1.41
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @STL 23 156.2 1.33
Kutter Crawford (BOS) @TEX 16 112 1.29
Edward Cabrera (MIA) NYM 11 85.2 1.16
Justin Verlander (HOU) BAL 18 143.1 1.13
Brady Singer (KC) CLE 19 153.2 1.12
Michael Wacha (SD) COL 14 115.1 1.09
Bryan Woo (SEA) @OAK 9 75.2 1.08
Mike Clevinger (CHW) @WSH 13 114.2 1.02
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ATL 19 175 0.98
Cal Quantrill (CLE) @KC 9 85 0.95
Jordan Montgomery (TEX) BOS 17 168.2 0.91
Kyle Wright (ATL) PHI 2 21.2 0.85
Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) @LAD 12 135.2 0.80
Jose Butto (NYM) @MIA 1 26 0.35

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS) HR
T. Turner (PHI) Last 30 12
K. Schwarber (PHI) Last 30 12
M. Ozuna (ATL) Last 30 11
R. Lewis (MIN) Last 30 10
R. Acuna (ATL) Last 30 9
M. Olson (ATL) Last 30 9
J. Rodriguez (SEA) Last 30 9
C. Seager (TEX) Last 30 9
S. Langeliers (OAK) Last 30 9

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM RANK HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals 1st 87
TEX Rangers 2nd 83
OAK Athletics 3rd 78
KC Royals T-4th 76
DET Tigers T-4th 76

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER OPP. PITCHER PLATE APPEARANCES HR AVG
Nolan Arenado (STL) Freddy Peralta (MIL) 25 4 0.409
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) Zack Wheeler (PHI) 45 4 0.256
Kris Bryant (COL) Michael Wacha (SD) 47 4 0.357
Pete Alonso (NYM) Edward Cabrera (MIA) 13 3 0.300
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Kyle Wright (ATL) 18 2 0.231
Matt Olson (ATL) Zack Wheeler (PHI) 19 2 0.222
Tyrone Taylor (MIL) Adam Wainwright (STL) 15 2 0.429
Rafael Devers (BOS) Jordan Montgomery (TEX) 29 2 0.280
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Freddy Peralta (MIL) 24 2 0.381
Jose Ramirez (CLE) Brady Singer (KC) 26 2 0.429

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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