May 23, 2026
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Read Article St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Hawks favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 12 matchup [5/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Thursday.
The St Kilda Saints and Hawthorn Hawks will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Marvel Stadium on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Saints game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Saints vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 12 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Hawks and Saints, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Hawks a 69% chance of beating the Saints.
According to our model, the Saints (+18.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 179.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Hawthorn vs. St Kilda odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -263 | +205 |
| Line (Spread) | -18.5 (-115) | +18.5 (-115) |
| Total | o179.5 (-115) | u179.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Saints picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints +18.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Saints | +205 |
| Total | Under 179.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Saints +18.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Saints vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Saints and Hawks at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints
- Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Saints in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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