Warriors vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Tuesday's NBA Cup matchup [11/11/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors will meet in NBA Cup action at Paycom Center on Tuesday, starting at 8:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell, while the Warriors will look to Stephen Curry, Jonathan Kuminga and Jimmy Butler.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Warriors vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win NBA Cup game?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Warriors and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 73% chance of beating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 116-110.

According to our model, the Warriors (+8) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Warriors vs. Thunder odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Warriors	Thunder
Spread	+8 (-106)	-8 (-114)
Moneyline	+280	-325
Total	o228.5 (-108)	u228.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Warriors vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Warriors +8	-106
Moneyline	Warriors	+280
Total	Under 228.5	-112

According to our best NBA bets for Tuesday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors +8 at the spread.

Warriors vs. Thunder player props

Betting on Golden State vs. Oklahoma City NBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Stephen Curry is expected to lead the Warriors with 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 29 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Warriors prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Warriors are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Stephen Curry	25	5	5	5	46
Jonathan Kuminga	18	6	3	2	34
Jimmy Butler	17	6	5	1	37
B. Podziemski	11	5	3	2	25
Draymond Green	9	6	6	2	32

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	29	5	6	2	51
Chet Holmgren	17	8	2	2	36
Ajay Mitchell	14	4	4	1	29
I. Hartenstein	12	11	3	0	34
Isaiah Joe	11	3	2	3	22

Warriors vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Thunder and Warriors at Paycom Center is scheduled to start at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center
• Tournament betails: 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Preview and Predictions

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with a 73% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Tuesday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 51 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Warriors vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.