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Read Article Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Hawks favored to win Monday's AFL Round 4 matchup [4/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Monday.
The Hawthorn Hawks and Geelong Cats will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, starting at 1:15 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Hawks game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 4 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's AFL game between the Cats and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 60% chance of beating the Cats.
According to our model, the Hawks (-2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 184.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Geelong vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +100 | -130 |
| Line (Spread) | +2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Total | o184.5 (-115) | u184.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -2.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -130 |
| Total | Under 184.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks -2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Monday's Australian rules football matchup between the Hawks and Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Monday, April 6, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Cats on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cats vs. Hawks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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