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Read Article Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Why Cats are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 13 matchup [6/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Cats as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Crows game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Crows vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 13 game?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL game between the Cats and Crows, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cats a 56% chance of defeating the Crows.
According to our model, the Crows (+8.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 164.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Geelong vs. Adelaide odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Crows |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -169 | +135 |
| Line (Spread) | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-115) |
| Total | o164.5 (-115) | u164.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Crows picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Crows +8.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Crows | +135 |
| Total | Under 164.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Crows +8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Crows vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football action between the Crows and Cats at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows
- Date: Thursday, June 4, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Crows in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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