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Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [12/5/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Friday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will meet in NBA action at Paycom Center on Friday, with tipoff at 9:30PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Thunder game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Mavericks will rely on Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington and Cooper Flagg.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 86% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 120-107.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+14.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 228.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Mavericks vs. Thunder odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +14.5 (-102) | -14.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +700 | -1050 |
| Total | o228.5 (-112) | u228.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Thunder picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +14.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +700 |
| Total | Under 228.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +14.5 at the spread.
Mavericks vs. Thunder player props
Betting on Dallas vs. Oklahoma City NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Anthony Davis is expected to lead the Mavericks with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 22 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 48 |
| P.J. Washington | 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Cooper Flagg | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 34 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 14 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| Naji Marshall | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 39 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 37 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
Mavs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Thunder and Mavericks at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
- Time: 9:30PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Friday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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