Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [12/5/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will meet in NBA action at Paycom Center on Friday, with tipoff at 9:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Mavericks will be led by Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Mavs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder an 87% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 121-107.

According to our model, the Mavericks (+15.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 229.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Mavericks vs. Thunder odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mavericks	Thunder
Spread	+15.5 (-105)	-15.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+800	-1200
Total	o229.5 (-108)	u229.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mavericks vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mavericks +15.5	-105
Moneyline	Mavericks	+800
Total	Over 229.5	-108

According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +15.5 at the spread.

Mavericks vs. Thunder player props

Looking for Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Anthony Davis is expected to lead the Mavericks with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Mavericks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Anthony Davis	22	11	4	1	48
Cooper Flagg	16	7	3	1	34
Ryan Nembhard	15	3	7	2	33
Naji Marshall	14	6	3	1	30
Klay Thompson	12	3	1	3	21

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	30	6	7	2	53
Jalen Williams	20	6	5	1	40
Chet Holmgren	18	9	2	1	37
Ajay Mitchell	15	5	4	1	31
Aaron Wiggins	11	4	2	2	23

Mavs vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Friday's game between the Thunder and Mavericks at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 9:30PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
• Time: 9:30PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 87% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Friday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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