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Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA game on December 5, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
111
132
Dec 6, 2:30AM Paycom Center
Dec 6, 2:30AM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | 27 | 84 | -39 | 39 | 111 |
Thunder | 27 | 105 | -32 | 32 | 132 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
4%
96%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | 27 | 84 | -39 | 39 | 111 |
Thunder | 27 | 105 | -32 | 32 | 132 |
Q4 00:20 D'Angelo Russell makes three point running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
Q4 00:27 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:53 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:15 Jaden Hardy makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:27 Brooks Barnhizer misses two point turnaround jump shot
Q4 1:52 Thunder makes two point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
Q4 2:08 D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:21 Branden Carlson makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:46 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
+3
D'Angelo Russell makes three point running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
111-132
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
111-132
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
+3
Jaden Hardy makes three point jump shot
100-128
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
Brooks Barnhizer misses two point turnaround jump shot
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
100-128
Thunder personal foul
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
111-132
Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
+3
Branden Carlson makes three point jump shot
100-128
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
111-132
Thunder personal foul
Thunder personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
+3
D'Angelo Russell makes three point jump shot
97-123
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks defensive rebound
Ousmane Dieng misses two point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+2
Brooks Barnhizer makes two point jump shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)
100-128
+1
Brooks Barnhizer makes regular free throw 1 of 1
111-132
Mavericks personal foul
Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Chris Youngblood personal foul (Moussa Cisse draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Ousmane Dieng, Chris Youngblood, Brooks Barnhizer, Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson)
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point jump shot
100-128
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
100-128
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder personal foul
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Ousmane Dieng misses two point jump shot
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses two point floating jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
+2
Chris Youngblood makes two point running layup (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
111-132
+1
Chris Youngblood makes regular free throw 1 of 1
111-132
Brandon Williams turnover (Brooks Barnhizer steals)
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
Ousmane Dieng misses three point jump shot
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving layup
111-132
Mavericks lineup change (Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell, Caleb Martin, Jaden Hardy, Moussa Cisse)
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Ousmane Dieng, Chris Youngblood, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Ryan Nembhard offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
111-132
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
111-132
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
111-132
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Ajay Mitchell's two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
91-118
Anthony Davis misses two point tip layup
Anthony Davis misses two point tip layup
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
+2
Kenrich Williams makes two point jump shot
91-118
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
111-132
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+3
Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
111-132
+3
Jaden Hardy makes three point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
72-100
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
111-132
Thunder turnover
Mavericks turnover
End of 3rd Quarter.
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
72-100
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy)
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Ousmane Dieng, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson)
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-132
Chris Youngblood defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Jaden Hardy personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Chris Youngblood, Branden Carlson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-132
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point alley-oop dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)
91-118
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
72-100
+2
Aaron Wiggins makes two point jump shot (Kenrich Williams assists)
72-100
Dwight Powell turnover
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
91-118
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot
111-132
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot (Aaron Wiggins assists)
111-132
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point pullup jump shot
111-132
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Cason Wallace misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses two point jump shot
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)
72-100
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
Thunder personal foul
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
111-132
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Branden Carlson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Dwight Powell makes two point jump shot
111-132
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Jaden Hardy makes three point stepback jump shot (Dwight Powell assists)
111-132
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Dwight Powell personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Thunder personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy)
+1
Jaden Hardy makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-132
+1
Jaden Hardy makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses three point jump shot
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy)
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)
55-84
Cooper Flagg offensive foul (Charge) (Jaylin Williams draws the foul)
Thunder personal foul
Cooper Flagg turnover (offensive foul)
Max Christie offensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses three point jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
111-132
+2
Max Christie makes two point stepback jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
111-132
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Jalen Williams offensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point jump shot
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Max Christie draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy)
+3
Jalen Williams makes three point jump shot
55-84
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
111-132
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point driving floating jump shot
55-84
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Anthony Davis turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
111-132
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
+2
Ryan Nembhard makes two point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
50-68
Thunder personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
48-66
Ryan Nembhard personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-132
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point fadeaway jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
111-132
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg)
Thunder lineup change (Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
End of 1st Half.
Chet Holmgren blocks Anthony Davis's two point putback layup
Mavericks offensive rebound
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point stepback jump shot
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point driving layup
48-63
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren personal foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
Anthony Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Anthony Davis misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin)
Mavericks offensive rebound
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
48-61
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace)
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
48-58
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, D'Angelo Russell, Cooper Flagg)
Jaylin Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Anthony Davis personal foul (Jaylin Williams draws the foul)
Thunder offensive rebound
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Anthony Davis misses two point driving layup
Max Christie defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point driving layup
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
48-57
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
47-57
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-57
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
46-56
Klay Thompson shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Naji Marshall shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-55
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
46-54
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg)
Naji Marshall turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg)
Mavericks challenge timeout
Naji Marshall misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Naji Marshall draws the foul)
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
46-53
Mavericks offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover
+2
Aaron Wiggins makes two point pullup jump shot
45-53
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point pullup jump shot
45-51
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot (Dwight Powell assists)
45-49
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating jump shot
43-49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Jaylin Williams personal foul (Dwight Powell draws the foul)
+1
Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
43-47
Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Naji Marshall shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
42-47
Thunder offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving floating jump shot
42-46
Brandon Williams offensive rebound
Jaylin Williams blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving layup
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)
40-46
Thunder defensive rebound
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Thunder challenge timeout
Thunder 60 second timeout
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Cooper Flagg's two point driving bank jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
39-43
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
40-43
Thunder lineup change (Ousmane Dieng, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Jaylin Williams shooting foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Max Christie defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses three point jump shot
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)
38-43
+3
Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
35-43
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg)
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses two point pullup jump shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
Jalen Williams personal foul
Thunder violation
Thunder violation
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Mavericks vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Mavericks vs. Thunder
- Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -15.5
- Total (Over/Under): 229.5
- Moneyline Odds: Mavericks +800, Thunder -1200
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Mavericks: 13%
- Thunder: 87%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Mavericks 108-121 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Mavericks a win probability of 13%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 87%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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