May 18, 2026
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Read Article Sun vs. Fire prediction: Why Portland is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Connecticut Sun vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Monday.
WNBA action continues on Monday at 10:00 PM ET as the Connecticut Sun square off with the Portland Fire at Moda Center.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Fire as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Fire game.
The Fire, who have the likes of Luisa Geiselsoder, Carla Leite and Bridget Carleton, are set to take on the Sun, featuring Brittney Griner, Aneesah Morrow and Kennedy Burke.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Fire a 61% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+3.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 58% chance of staying under.
Sun vs. Fire odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Total | o173.5 (-105) | u173.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +145 |
| Total | Under 173.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 173.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Fire player props
Betting on Connecticut vs. Portland WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Brittney Griner is expected to lead the Sun with 14 points, 6 rebounds and 1 assists, while Luisa Geiselsoder is projected to have 9 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists for the Fire.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Aneesah Morrow | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Kennedy Burke | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Saniya Rivers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Diamond Miller | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Geiselsoder | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Carla Leite | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| B. Carleton | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Emily Engstler | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Sun vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Fire and Sun at Moda Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Fire, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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