...
...
Read Article
Sun vs. Liberty prediction: New York favored to win WNBA Opening Night matchup [5/8/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty predictions for WNBA Friday.
The New York Liberty will square off with the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at Barclays Center on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Liberty game.
The Liberty, with the likes of Breanna Stewart, Satou Sabally and Jonquel Jones, will face off against the Sun, featuring Aneesah Morrow, Brittney Griner and Aaliyah Edwards.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sun vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Liberty an 89% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Liberty (-10.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 159.5 points has a 61% chance of going over.
Sun vs. Liberty odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sun | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +455 | -600 |
| Total | o159.5 (-108) | u159.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sun vs. Liberty picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -10.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -600 |
| Total | Over 159.5 | -108 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 159.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sun vs. Liberty player props
WNBA player props are a great way to wager on the Connecticut vs. New York game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Aneesah Morrow is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 12 rebounds and 1 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 21 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sun prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aneesah Morrow | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 33 |
| Brittney Griner | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| Saniya Rivers | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
Liberty prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 44 |
| Satou Sabally | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 38 |
| Jonquel Jones | 17 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| Betnijah Laney | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Marine Johannes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
Sun vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Liberty and Sun at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure