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Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Cats favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 9 matchup [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Geelong Cats will square off with the Collingwood Magpies in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 5:35 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Cats game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cats vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 9 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Cats, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Cats a 64% chance of beating the Magpies.
According to our model, the Magpies (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Collingwood vs. Geelong odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Magpies | Cats |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +160 | -208 |
| Line (Spread) | +13.5 (-115) | -13.5 (-115) |
| Total | o176.5 (-115) | u176.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Cats picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies +13.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Magpies | +160 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies +13.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cats vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Cats and Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Geelong Cats
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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