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Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Why Magpies are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 6 matchup [4/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Carlton Blues and Collingwood Magpies are scheduled to meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Magpies as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Blues game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 6 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Blues, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Magpies a 66% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Magpies (-8.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 155.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Collingwood vs. Carlton odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Magpies | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -179 | +140 |
| Line (Spread) | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-115) |
| Total | o155.5 (-115) | u155.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies -8.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Magpies | -179 |
| Total | Under 155.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Magpies -8.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Blues and Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Thursday, April 16, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Magpies, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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