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Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Lions favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 4 matchup [4/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Brisbane Lions and Collingwood Magpies will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at The Gabba on Thursday, starting at 4:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Lions game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 4 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 69% chance of defeating the Magpies.
According to our model, the Magpies (+17.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Collingwood vs. Brisbane odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Magpies | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +205 | -263 |
| Line (Spread) | +17.5 (-115) | -17.5 (-115) |
| Total | o176.5 (-115) | u176.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Magpies vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Magpies +17.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Magpies | +205 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 176.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football matchup between the Lions and Magpies at The Gabba is scheduled to start at 4:30 AM ET.
- Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Thursday, April 2, 2026
- Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Magpies vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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