CFB Computer Picks, Analysis and Prediction For Texas vs. Oklahoma State on October 22, 2022

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 3:18PM | Published: Oct 20, 2022, 1:22AM

An argument can be made that the Texas Longhorns are the best team in the Big 12, and they'll definitely have a chance to prove it when they face the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater at 3:30PM ET on Saturday, October 22.

Who will win this game that has big time conference implications? You might want to keep reading our Texas vs. Oklahoma State betting preview to find out.

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Texas vs. Oklahoma State Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

56% chance Texas wins on the moneyline
63% probability Oklahoma State covers the +6.5 spread
53% shot Texas vs. Oklahoma State goes Under 61 total points

For the best CFB computer picks, check out our Texas vs. Oklahoma State. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Analysis

Why Texas Will Cover The Spread

Texas might be the best two-loss team in the country. Many people say that if quarterback Quinn Ewers didn’t get hurt, Texas would be undefeated. The Longhorns’ two losses have only come by a combined four points.

Oklahoma State struggles to defend the pass. The Cowboys are 126th in FBS in passing yards allowed per game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has to be licking his chops at that. The Texas pass offense vs. the Oklahoma State pass defense is a huge mismatch.

The spread in this game is at Texas -6.5. Oklahoma State is ranked higher than Texas, but Vegas likes the Longhorns. Texas has the talent edge in this game. It’s just a matter of going out there and performing.

MORE: CFB Futures Probabilities

Why Oklahoma State Will Cover The Spread

Texas always seems to choke in big moments, doesn't it? Boone Pickens Stadium will be rocking on Saturday as the Cowboys are home underdogs. Playing Texas always brings extra motivation to the table.

Oklahoma State has a solid offense. The Cowboys will be able to score points against an average Texas defense that still has a long way to go to get to a championship level. Expect quarterback Spencer Sanders to have a bounce-back game after he completed less than 50% of his passes against TCU.

Oklahoma State plus the 6.5 points here is a play the DimersBOT likes a lot. If the spread was a little lower, we might side with with Texas, but we think Oklahoma State is good enough to keep this close. We also have to account for the possibility that Texas trips on its own feet.

Why The Over Will Hit

Both offenses should find success through the air. While Texas’ defense has performed well this season, the Oklahoma State offense is too good not to score points. We mentioned the mismatch between the Texas passing game and the Oklahoma State pass defense. That should translate into points as well.

The Over just wouldn't be a surprising result given the pace both of these teams play at.

Why The Under Will Hit

The DimersBOT leans toward the Under in this game, but both teams would likely need to get the ground game going. That'll be tough when you consider both teams will want to attack opposing weak secondaries, but it's not out of the question. Steve Sarkisian isn’t one to not attack the opposing teams’ weakness.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

Lean: Cowboys +6.5

The spread opened at Texas -3. If it stayed there, we might have gone with the Longhorns. However, we think Oklahoma State keeps this close at home.

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Brendan Moore

Contributor

Brendan Moore is an expert in all things college football and basketball with bylines with Sidelines Sports Network and Spartans Illustrated, covering Michigan State collegiate sports.

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