Can the USA win the World Cup? The data says it's not "impossible"

Ahead of the USA's highly anticipated match against Turkey on Thursday, the soccer world finds itself divided. For the traditionalists and casual pundits, the idea of the USA lifting the World Cup remains a far-fetched fantasy.

In fact, former USMNT goalkeeper Tim Howard made headlines this week by declaring that winning the World Cup is essentially "impossible" for the Americans, pointing to the historical dominance of elite European and South American heavyweights.

Before a single ball was kicked in this tournament, the USA was considered a serious longshot, assigned an improbable 1.3% chance—and huge odds of +5500—to win it all on home soil.

But things have changed, and fast.

Following a pair of convincing, statement victories over Paraguay and Australia, our predictive data model has adjusted—and that 1.3% pre-tournament prediction looks vastly different today.

USMNT legend goalkeeper Tim Howard saying "it's literally impossible for the U.S. to win a World Cup" 😯🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/pB8mNwkNhv

— USMNT Only (@usmntonly) June 21, 2026

While Howard's view isn't popular, it's not uncommon. Historically, analysts have completely written off teams sitting with such low pre-tournament probabilities. However, predicting an event of this scale—now the largest field in World Cup history with 48 teams, 12 groups, and six grueling knockout rounds—requires the removal of any and all emotional analysis.

The sheer complexity of this expanded tournament means sportsbooks and analysts frequently misprice the field, overvaluing historic prestige (eg. Brazil) while completely underestimating underdogs (eg. USA) who have the capability to make a deep run.

Can the USA win the World Cup in 2026?

Well, the data says it's certainly not "impossible."

Far from a pipe dream, this surge has officially propelled the United States into the tournament's Top 10 strongest contenders. While they still trail the traditional powerhouse quartet of France, Spain, Argentina, and England, the math says the Americans are now firmly in the hunt.

Skeptics will likely still side with the likes of Howard in viewing the USA's chances as slim to none.

But dismissing the Dimers data model's projections ignores its spectacular track record of beating the books in this very tournament.

While the betting public frequently flies blind, the Dimers World Cup predictions model has consistently spotted where the sportsbooks were wrong.

In fact, before the tournament even started, the model identified 38—yes, 38—distinct futures edges where it saw a higher probability of success than the oddsmakers implied.

And, after just one round of matches, 25 of those 38 bets had moved drastically in bettors’ favor, as the market scrambled to catch up to what the Dimers algorithm had uncovered.

And those long range futures bets aren't the model's only success stories so far this tournament.

Dimers' World Cup data: Proven on the big stage

The accuracy of these predictions was put on full display during a chaotic first round of group-stage action.

When Spain drew with Cabo Verde, nearly everyone had expected a routine multi-goal blowout for the global powerhouse. The model disagreed, identifying a massive mispricing on the Under 3.5 Goals market, alongside a highly improbable Draw at +1400 odds. The match famously ended 0-0, rewarding those who trusted the data.

The model also saw a massive 17.9% edge on Germany vs. Curaçao (Both Teams to Score - Yes) at +240, correctly realizing the bookmakers had completely underestimated the underdogs' ability to score a single goal.

From backing Australia to pull off a stunning +460 upset against Turkey, to predicting Switzerland and Qatar's high-scoring affair, the Dimers World Cup model has repeatedly proven it sees the game more clearly than the human eye.

Crucially, the model also foresaw the catalyst behind the USA's current momentum. Before the Americans took the field for their opener against Paraguay, we flagged an impending goal-fest that the market had undervalued. The data leaned heavily to Over 2.5 Goals, a projection validated in emphatic fashion as the clinical U.S. attack rolled to a dominant 4-1 victory.

Revealed: Who will win World Cup 2026?

Firstly, the United States has a real, statistically backed path to glory—and the smart money is no longer betting against them.