Flames vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [11/26/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Wednesday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Flames vs. Lightning game.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Flames vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Wednesday's clash between the Flames and Lightning.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 62% chance of beating the Flames.

According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 53% chance of going over.

Flames vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Flames	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+145)
Moneyline	+155	-185
Total	o5.5 (-120)	u5.5 (+105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Flames vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Flames +1.5	-155
Moneyline	Flames	+155
Total	Over 5.5	-120

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Flames +1.5 at the spread.

Flames vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Flames vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Flames vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 47.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 10.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nazem Kadri	28.1%
Matthew Coronato	27.8%
Jonathan Huberdeau	23.7%
Yegor Sharangovich	20.9%
Blake Coleman	20.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	47.2%
Nikita Kucherov	39.2%
Brandon Hagel	32.7%
Anthony Cirelli	30.4%
Nick Paul	26.8%

First goal scorer predictions

Calgary Flames

Player	First Goal Probability
Nazem Kadri	5.3%
Matthew Coronato	4.8%
Jonathan Huberdeau	4.7%
Blake Coleman	4.0%
Morgan Frost	3.8%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	10.3%
Nikita Kucherov	8.6%
Brandon Hagel	6.4%
Anthony Cirelli	5.7%
Nick Paul	5.4%

Flames vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's matchup between the Lightning and Flames at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Calgary Flames vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Flames vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.