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Bills vs. Patriots prediction: Buffalo favored to win in NFL Week 15 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots predictions for NFL Sunday.
The New England Patriots will square off with the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 15 action at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Patriots game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bills vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bills-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Bills a 57% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 15 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 24-23.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Bills and Patriots each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 57% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 15 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Patriots odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -118 | +105 |
| Total | o49.5 (-110) | u49.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bills vs. Patriots picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Bills | -118 |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 49.5 total points.
Bills vs. Patriots TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 15, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots.
Our projections give Cook a 50.1% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 10.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 50.1% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 45.1% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 28.0% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 26.4% |
| Gabe Davis (WR) | 17.8% |
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 44.6% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 34.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 31.8% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 29.1% |
| Kayshon Boutte (WR) | 25.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 10.2% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 8.8% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 4.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 4.5% |
| Gabe Davis (WR) | 2.9% |
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 9.2% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 6.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 5.9% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 5.3% |
| Kayshon Boutte (WR) | 4.6% |
Bills vs Patriots player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 15 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 231 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 241 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 231 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 241 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 88 |
| Josh Allen | 38 |
| Ty Johnson | 11 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 46 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 38 |
| Drake Maye | 24 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 51 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 44 |
| Gabe Davis | 25 |
| Keon Coleman | 21 |
| Dawson Knox | 20 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 58 |
| Hunter Henry | 42 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 37 |
| Mack Hollins | 35 |
| DeMario Douglas | 22 |
Bills vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 15 game between the Patriots and Bills at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 15 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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