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Bills vs. Jaguars prediction: Jacksonville favored to win Wild Card game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills will meet on Wild Card weekend of the NFL Playoffs at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Jaguars as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Jaguars game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bills vs. Jaguars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bills-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Jaguars 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Jaguars a 57% chance of defeating the Bills. Our predicted final score has the Jaguars winning 26-24.
According to our model, the Jaguars (-1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 51.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 19 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Jaguars odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-104) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +112 | -122 |
| Total | o51.5 (-105) | u51.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bills vs. Jaguars picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars -1.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | -122 |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Jaguars to win.
Bills vs. Jaguars TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Jaguars?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Jaguars.
Our projections give Cook a 55.7% chance of scoring a TD at EverBank Stadium, while the running back is an 11.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 55.7% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 49.6% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 25.9% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 25.1% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 20.2% |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 50.4% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 33.9% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 31.8% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 28.8% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 26.2% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 11.3% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 9.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 4.2% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 4.0% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 3.1% |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (RB) | 11.8% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB) | 7.0% |
| Parker Washington (WR) | 6.5% |
| Jakobi Meyers (WR) | 5.7% |
| Brian Thomas (WR) | 5.1% |
Bills vs Jaguars player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Jaguars. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 19 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 231 passing yards. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 243 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 231 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 243 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 89 |
| Josh Allen | 43 |
| Ray Davis | 14 |
Jaguars rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 64 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 28 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 19 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 48 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 44 |
| Brandin Cooks | 28 |
| James Cook | 24 |
| Dawson Knox | 24 |
Jaguars receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 58 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 58 |
| Brian Thomas | 46 |
| Brenton Strange | 38 |
| Travis Etienne | 18 |
Bills vs. Jaguars game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Jaguars and Bills at EverBank Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Jaguars, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Bills on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Jaguars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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