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North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Lions favored to win Friday's AFL Round 5 matchup [4/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Friday.
The North Melbourne Kangaroos and Brisbane Lions will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Barossa Park on Friday, starting at 10:35 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Kangaroos game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Kangaroos vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 5 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL game between the Lions and Kangaroos, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions an 84% chance of beating the Kangaroos.
According to our model, the Kangaroos (+39.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 192.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Brisbane vs. North Melbourne odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Kangaroos |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -909 | +500 |
| Line (Spread) | -39.5 (-115) | +39.5 (-115) |
| Total | o192.5 (-115) | u192.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Kangaroos picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kangaroos +39.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Kangaroos | +500 |
| Total | Under 192.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Kangaroos +39.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Kangaroos vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Kangaroos and Lions at Barossa Park is scheduled to start at 10:35 PM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos
- Date: Friday, April 10, 2026
- Time: 10:35 PM ET/7:35PM PT
- Venue: Barossa Park
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with an 84% win probability, will likely beat the Kangaroos in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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