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Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Why Lions are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 6 matchup [4/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Melbourne Demons and Brisbane Lions are scheduled to meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 1:15 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Demons game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Demons vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 6 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's AFL game between the Lions and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lions a 70% chance of defeating the Demons.
According to our model, the Demons (+24.5) have a 60% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 187.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under.
Brisbane vs. Melbourne odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Demons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -345 | +255 |
| Line (Spread) | -24.5 (-115) | +24.5 (-115) |
| Total | o187.5 (-115) | u187.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Demons picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Demons +24.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Demons | +255 |
| Total | Under 187.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Demons +24.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Demons vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football matchup between the Demons and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons
- Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Demons in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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