Best NBA parlay: Our +400 data-backed triple treat for Christmas Day

Using Dimers' NBA predictions, the Christmas Day basketball slate offers a distinct opportunity to look past the surface-level narratives and simply trust the data when constructing our 3-leg NBA parlay.

For our Christmas Day NBA parlay, we've isolated bets within very specific edge ranges using our new 'Sweet Spot' filter. Using this method saw us almost cash a nice +593 odds parlay on Tuesday.

Our model has flagged three NBA best bets—two Moneylines and one Spread—where the edge sits within the highly specific ranges that have historically generated ROI.

NBA parlay for Christmas Day

Leg 1: Cavaliers to cover +6 vs. Knicks (+100)

Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks

The narrative entering this contest is heavily skewed toward New York. Fresh off their NBA Cup victory, the Knicks have been crowned the Eastern Conference favorites by the public and pundits alike. Meanwhile, Cleveland has quietly regressed to the mean, hovering just above .500 after last season's dominance.

However, a 6-point spread in this spot feels reactionary. While the Knicks' offense has been potent, the Cavaliers' defensive metrics suggest they can muddy this game up enough to keep it within two possessions. Our model identifies a 52.8% probability of Cleveland covering, offering a 2.8% edge at even money (+100).

The Reasoning: We are fading the "super team" tax here. The market is paying a premium for the Knicks' recent silverware, leaving value on the road dog. NBA Spread bets in this specific edge range have returned 9.7% profit across 32 similar bets, rewarding those willing to back the less popular side.

Leg 2: Rockets Moneyline (-168)

Matchup: Houston Rockets vs. LA Lakers

The Lakers are in freefall, currently riding an inconsistency streak that has exposed severe cracks in their rotation. Conversely, the Rockets (17-10) have established themselves as a legitimate defensive force. Despite playing on the road, Houston’s youth and energy present a nightmare matchup for a sluggish Lakers transition defense.

The -168 odds might seem steep to some, but our data suggests it’s actually a discount. We project the Rockets with a massive 65.8% win probability, revealing a 3.1% edge even at these odds.

The Reasoning: Sometimes the "Sweet Spot" isn't about finding a longshot; it's about realizing when a favorite is still undervalued. The market hasn't fully adjusted to the Lakers' recent dysfunction. NBA Moneyline bets in this high-confidence edge range have returned 17.0% profit across 88 similar bets, signaling that laying the juice here is a long-term winning strategy.

Leg 3: Nuggets Moneyline (-178)

Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

This is a heavyweight clash between two of the West's best, with the Nuggets (21-8) hosting the Timberwolves (20-10). While Minnesota presents a unique structural challenge with their size, Denver’s home-court advantage at Ball Arena remains one of the most statistically significant variables in the league.

Our model looks past the hype of the matchup and focuses on consistency. The Nuggets rarely drop games at home against conference rivals, a fact reflected in our 66.5% win probability. This generates a solid 2.5% edge over the implied odds.

The Reasoning: In matchups this tight on paper, the market often overthinks the underdog's chances. We are keeping it simple and backing the more reliable efficient machine at home. Much like the Rockets play, NBA Moneyline bets in this specific tier have returned 17.0% profit across 88 similar bets. We trust the data to cut through the noise of a marquee matchup.

Christmas NBA parlay

Leg 1: Cavaliers to cover (+100)

Leg 2: Rockets Moneyline (-168)

Leg 3: Nuggets Moneyline (-178)

NBA Christmas parlay odds: +400