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Read Article Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 5 of WCF 2026
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Playoffs Tuesday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are scheduled to meet in Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on Tuesday, starting at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jared McCain, while the Spurs will look to Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win Game 5?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Spurs and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder a 62% chance of beating the Spurs in Game 5 of the series. Our predicted final score in Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals has the Thunder winning 110-107.
According to our model, the Spurs (+3.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 216.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Spurs vs. Thunder Game 4 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +136 | -158 |
| Total | o216.5 (-108) | u216.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Thunder picks and best bet for Game 5
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -158 |
| Total | Over 216.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Tuesday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +3.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 player props
Looking for Spurs vs. Thunder NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 27 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 61 |
| Stephon Castle | 18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 41 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 16 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 35 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Dylan Harper | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 54 |
| Chet Holmgren | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 31 |
| Jared McCain | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Cason Wallace | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| Isaiah Joe | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 updates and essential details
Tuesday's Game 5 between the Thunder and Spurs in the NBA Western Conference Finals is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The winner of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals will progress to the NBA Finals. Game 4 of the best-of-seven series between the Spurs and Thunder is at Oklahoma City's Paycom Center.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs in Game 4 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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