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Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao predictions for La Liga Saturday.
Alaves will take on Athletic Bilbao in La Liga action at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, beginning at 12:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model projects Athletic Bilbao as the most likely winner of the Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 34.7% chance of Alaves winning, a 38.4% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 27.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Alaves | Athletic Bilbao | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +175 | +160 | +235 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -102 | -130 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao | +160 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -130 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Athletic Bilbao to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ALV 1-1 ATB | 12.8% |
| ALV 0-1 ATB | 10.6% |
| ALV 1-0 ATB | 9.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 49.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's La Liga game between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to start in the United States at 12:30 PM ET.
- Who: Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao
- Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
- Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Alaves has a 34.7% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has a 38.4% win probability, and there is a 27.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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