Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/2/2026]

Alaves will square off with Athletic Bilbao in La Liga action at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, starting at 12:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Athletic Bilbao as the most likely winner of the Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao game.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 34.5% chance of Alaves winning, a 38.5% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 27.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Alaves	Athletic Bilbao	Draw
+180	+160	+230

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+105	-145

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Athletic Bilbao	+160
Total Goals	Over 2.5	+105

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Athletic Bilbao to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
ALV 1-1 ATB	12.8%
ALV 0-1 ATB	10.6%
ALV 1-0 ATB	9.9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 50.8% chance of both Alaves and Athletic Bilbao finding the net and a 49.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's La Liga game between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to commence in the United States at 12:30 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao
• Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
• Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 34.5% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has a 38.5% win probability, and there is a 27.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.