Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on May 2, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
LA LIGA
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Athletic Bilbao
4
2
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Estadio Mendizorrotza
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Athletic BilbaoBIL
A. Blanco (8')
Soccer ball icon
N. Tenaglia (68')
Soccer ball icon
R. Navarro (46')
Soccer ball icon
O. Sancet (74')
Soccer ball icon
N. Williams (83')
Soccer ball icon
N. Williams (87')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Athletic Bilbao
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    C. Alena (Alaves) cautioned
  2. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Boiro replaces N. Williams
  3. 87'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by N. Williams, assisted by G. Guruzeta
    4-2
  4. 84'
    Yellow Card
    M. Jauregizar (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  5. 83'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by N. Williams, assisted by G. Guruzeta
    3-2
  6. 76'
    Yellow Card
    N. Williams (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  7. 74'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by O. Sancet, assisted by Y. Berchiche
    2-2
  8. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Alena replaces I. Diabate
  9. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: J. Areso replaces A. Gorosabel
  10. 68'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by N. Tenaglia, assisted by A. Rebbach
    1-2
  11. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: J. Guridi replaces D. Suarez
  12. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces P. Ibanez
  13. 60'
    Yellow Card
    G. Guruzeta (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  14. 60'
    Yellow Card
    A. Blanco (Alaves) cautioned
  15. 49'
    Yellow Card
    P. Ibanez (Alaves) cautioned
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Ruiz de Galarreta replaces M. Jauregizar
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: R. Navarro replaces I. Williams
  18. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: O. Sancet replaces U. Gomez
  19. 46'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by R. Navarro, assisted by N. Williams
    1-1
  20. 41'
    Yellow Card
    E. Valverde (Ath Bilbao) cautioned
  21. 28'
    Yellow Card
    T. Martinez (Alaves) cautioned
  22. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by A. Blanco, assisted by A. Perez
    0-1

Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao
  • Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +180, Athletic Bilbao +160, draw +230
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+120/-134)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 34.5%
  • Athletic Bilbao: 38.5%
  • Draw: 27.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with Dimers Pro—cancel anytime.

Who will win Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Athletic Bilbao is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.5%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 1-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Alaves vs. Athletic Bilbao, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.