...
...
Read Article
Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 9 matchup [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Richmond Tigers will face the favored Adelaide Crows in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 1:15 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Crows as the most likely winner of the Crows vs. Tigers game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Crows prediction: Who will win Round 9 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's AFL matchup between the Crows and Tigers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Crows an 85% chance of beating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Tigers (+36.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Adelaide vs. Richmond odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Crows | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -833 | +500 |
| Line (Spread) | -36.5 (-115) | +36.5 (-115) |
| Total | o178.5 (-115) | u178.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Crows vs. Tigers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tigers +36.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Tigers | +500 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigers +36.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Crows game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football action between the Tigers and Crows at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Crows, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
Advertiser disclosure