It's officially March and that means we're just one month away from The Masters but before we get there, we've got a solid run of events, including this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The quality of the field has dropped off slightly for this one, with a host of top players taking a break before next week's 'fifth major' in THE PLAYERS Championship.
Data-led probabilities for the winner, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 after simulating the tournament 10,000 times!
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Looking ahead to our picks for the week now, we’ve once again gone with three outright winner plays, ranging from the outright favorite to a couple of value plays.
🏌️♂️ Outright winner picks
🏆 Top Pick:
Patrick Reed (+2000 or 20/1)
Rarely a popular winner, we're dipping into picking P Reed for the second time in 2021. Last time we picked him, he went on to win the next week (thanks Patrick).
Reed is putting at an absolutely ridiculous level right now and the rest of his game usually follows when that happens. Bay Hill isn't the most exciting course, meaning that consistent players that can do everything to a decent level will be rewarded, making Reed our top pick for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The last five winners of the API have been internationals (more on that later) and honestly if anyone's going to ruin that run it's going to be everyone's favorite villain.
Check out the highlights from his controversial win at Farmers here👇
🤑 PointsBet offer:
The consistent star 🌟
With each golf tournament comes great promo offers from the sportsbooks and this week is no exception, with the chance to bet on ANY player to post sub-70 cards on all four days of the tournament.
Over 15 players have played all 4 rounds under 70 in the past 2 months of tournaments!
💰 Value Bet:
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800 or 28/1)
A five-time winner on the PGA Tour, Hideki has failed to come through for a dub since the 2017 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and will be out to get one as soon as possible.
Many experts have pegged the winning score this week to be around -15, which is right in line with the kinds of tournaments Hideki has won, with his five winning scores coming in at -13, -14, -23, -17 and -16.
As mentioned above the last five winners of this tournament have come from outside the US and Hideki fits the bill as the kind of guy who could shine at Bay Hill before heading to THE PLAYERS and next month's Masters.
Check out the highlights from his last win below 👇
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🔮 Dark Horse:
Marc Leishman (+5000 or 50/1)
Our dark horse picks are running HOT right now, with Collin Morikawa coming through at 46/1 odds last week, filling our pockets in a very big way.
This week, we have another guy at similar odds, with Australian Marc Leishman featuring for the second time in 2021. Last time we picked him as our dark horse was at the Sony Open, where Leish finished in an impressive T4. Scroll down to view our full list of dark horse plays from 2021 so far!
Onto why we've gone with the Australian again and it's simply because his odds are FAR too generous. He finished in outright second last season in what was a different winning score (-4) to what we're expecting this time around which should hold him in good stead for the 2021 tournament.
Check out the highlights from his 2020 Farmers victory here 👇
2021 dark horse record:
Sungjae Im @ Sentry TOC - T5
Marc Leishman @ Sony Open - T4
Cameron Champ @ AmEx - CUT
Corey Conners @ Farmers - T37
Jason Day @ Phoenix - CUT
Harold Varner @ Pebble - CUT
Cameron Smith @ Genesis - 4th
Collin Morikawa @ WGC Workday - WINNER
As you can see, we've now had four dark horses place in the Top-5 this season (including an outright winner!!), rewarding bettors big time as we always recommend playing these guys to finish Top-20, Top-10 and Top-5 as well as outright!
🏌️ MORE GOLF: Puerto Rico Open Preview and Bets
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