The TOUR returns to Pebble this week with the famed Pro-Am tournament in California.
The field this week will be seen as a bit of a let down compared to both the PGA and European Tour fields we had last week, but that just means there's more players in with a shot of grabbing the win!
Data-led probabilities for the winner, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 after simulating the tournament 10,000 times!
The favorite this week is Patrick Cantlay who comes into the tournament at +850 odds as he seeks his fourth PGA victory.
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Looking ahead to our picks for the week now, we’ve once again gone with three outright winner plays, ranging from one of the favorites to a couple of value plays.
🏌️♂️ Outright winner picks
🏆 Top Pick:
Daniel Berger (+1400 or 14/1)
Berger was one of the most consistent players in the world across 2020, finishing in 15th place in the FedEx Cup and reaching a career-high 12 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Despite his hot 2020, Berger only secured the one win and will be out to rectify that in a field where he is the second-ranked player, which alone makes him our top pick for the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He missed the cut last week after a run of three consecutive top 10's and should get right back up there this week.
Check out the highlights from his final round 66 at last year's Charles Schwab Challenge👇
🤑 PointsBet offer:
Spieth Top 10 💪
With each golf tournament comes great promo offers from the sportsbooks and this week is no exception!
PointsBet is offering you the chance to bet on fan favorite, Jordan Spieth, to finish in the Top-10 for the second straight week at enhanced odds!
Spieth had golf twitter rolling last Saturday as he made a big push before falling short on the final day, finishing in fourth place.
💰 Value Bet:
Will Zalatoris (+2000 or 20/1)
Our value play this week is 24-year-old Will Zalatoris. The young star has finished in the top-20 in six of eight PGA events so far this season, and is edging closer to that elusive first win!
He's inevitably going to win soon enough and with odds at +2000 in a weaker field than most, it's very hard to not bet on him at Pebble this week.
Bonus value pick: If you're looking for some more value on the board, then it's hard to look past Francesco Molinari, who also features in our 2021 Golf Majors picks!
Last week's bonus pick was of course Brooks Koepka, who came through for the win at 55/1 odds!
He's cracked the top-50 in the world for the first time and the next step is that first win.
Check out the highlights from the final round Francesco Molinari's 2018 Open Championship win -👇
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🔮 Dark Horse:
Harold Varner III (+8000 or 80/1)
HV3 was one of our first dark horse picks back in 2020, when he finished in a respectable T13 at the Shriners Open.
After a couple of poor weeks with our dark horse picks, we've decided to go back to the well with Varner, who also finished T13 at last week's Waste Management as well.
At 80/1 odds, it's hard to look past Varner and we're very happy to sprinkle some pizza money on him!
Below are his highlights from a very impressive 63 at the Charles Schwab 👇
2021 dark horse record:
As you can see, our first two dark horse picks of 2021 had great tournaments, paying out those that bet them for Top-5 and Top-10! And with 3/4 making the cut, we're off to a hot start with guys at long odds.
We've lost a bit of form of late, but this is the week our dark horse jumps back up the leaderboard!
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